Japan Fall Foliage Forecast 2026: Live Koyo Tracker

Live Status Board · Autumn

By Nobu · Statuses update automatically from typical historical windows, then switch to field reports and published forecasts in season · Fuji Five Lakes reports are first-hand · Weathernews released its first 2026 forecast on 3 September; page updated 4 September 2026

Japan’s autumn colours run for nearly three months — from the alpine slopes of Daisetsuzan in mid-September to Kyoto’s temple gardens in early December. This board tracks eleven key regions through the 2026 season. Weathernews published the first 2026 forecast on 3 September, and it calls for a late autumn: peak colour is forecast to come later than average, or somewhat later, across most of the country. Weathernews has not said how many days later, so the board rows still run on long-term typical windows. The forecast section sets out what that call does and does not tell you.

Planning a spring trip instead? Track the bloom on the Japan cherry blossom (sakura) tracker.

If your trip is in September, pair this status board with my where to see Japan autumn leaves in September guide — the board tells you what is colouring, that page helps you choose where to actually go.

Autumn leaves status board

Any row whose badge begins TYPICAL, or reads EXPECTED (TYPICAL) or SEASON OVER, is calculated from long-term typical windows (JMA station averages and verified spot data) - it is not a report of what the leaves are doing now. Only a row naming its source and date carries current-year information. Fuji Five Lakes sky today (JMA): Rain (checked Sep 10, 19:54 JST)

The 2026 forecast: a late autumn

Weathernews published its first 2026 koyo forecast on 3 September 2026, and the headline finding is that peak colour will be later than average, or somewhat later, across most of Japan. Weathernews also expects healthy leaves and vivid colour.

That it is a private company is not incidental. Japan has had no government autumn forecast since 2008, and the one it ran only ever covered Kanto — what the state still measures is not the thing a traveller wants to know. I set out who forecasts what, and how to read them against each other, in who actually forecasts Japan’s autumn colours.

The reason is temperature. Weathernews expects above-average temperatures to persist — in northern Japan from late September onward, and in eastern and western Japan across the whole period. Colour is triggered by cold nights (about 8°C to start it, 5°C to accelerate it), so a warm run simply postpones the trigger.

What that means for your dates. If you booked around a typical-year calendar, you are more likely to arrive early than late this year. Altitude cuts both ways: colour ignites on the high slopes first and walks downhill. If you arrive and the valley is still green, go higher — a ropeway or a mountain road moves you forward in the season. If the mountain is already bare, go down. Altitude does not cancel a warm autumn, because the high slopes are running late too; it lets you slide along the front instead of missing it.

If your trip is Tokyo and Kyoto, the cities themselves give you nothing to trade. Both city centres are low-lying, so the altitude lever only works if you leave town for a day. What you have instead is a day trip: from Tokyo, Nikko and the Okutama valley run ahead of the city; from Kyoto, Kurama, Kibune and the Hiei ridge turn before Arashiyama and Tofukuji do. Keep the city days for late in your stay and put the higher day trip early.

Weathernews also publishes a guideline window for each region on its koyo portal. These are broad envelopes covering every elevation in the region, and Weathernews does not label them as a dated 2026 forecast — read them as the outer bounds of the season, then use the late-2026 call to lean toward the second half of each window.

Three places are named in the release text, and the first one has already started. Murodo-daira in Toyama, above 2,000 m, is colouring near the summit now — the season has already started in Japan — but only at altitude. The release then dates the Daisetsuzan range in Hokkaido from mid-September and Kyoto from late November — and those are only the three the press release names in words. Weathernews also puts a date on 52 individual spots across its nine regional maps, and about 1,200 more on its prefecture pages. The 52 are listed below.

The 52 spots dated on Weathernews’ 3 September maps

Forecast snapshot: 3 September 2026 — not a live feed. The board higher up this page updates itself; this table does not.

Each date is the day Weathernews expects about 70 per cent of that site to have coloured — the opening of a viewing window, not the first hint of colour, a single best day, or an end date. Sorted by date, the 52 run from Asahidake on 14 September to Yoro Valley on 4 December. That is the span of this table, not of the Japanese season, which continues past both ends.

The Japan Weather Association also forecasts spot by spot, and says its 2026 information starts around late September. Weathernews got there first: its 52 map dates are in the table above, and about 1,200 more sit on its own app. The eleven regional rows below still carry typical-year windows — a single dated spot is not a whole region, so Jozankei’s 17 October does not become Hokkaido’s date. A row moves only when a forecast or report that covers that row is attached to it, which so far is the Japan Alps. I update as each release arrives, not on a schedule.

The Japan Weather Association forecasts spot by spot rather than by region, and that is the release that can actually move an individual row. Until it lands, the board rows are still typical-year windows, apart from the Japan Alps. I update as each release arrives, not on a schedule.

Dates already booked? Find your row

Every prefecture: when it turns, and where to go

The board above tracks eleven flagship regions. Here is the whole country, prefecture by prefecture: 144 hand-picked viewing spots across all 46 prefectures with a koyo season, each with its usual best-viewing window, so you can look up wherever your rail pass is taking you. Open a prefecture to see its spots; prefectures whose typical season is approaching open automatically. Windows are typical-year timing (2026 is forecast to run later than average), and the chips compare today’s date with that typical window — field reports stay on the board above.

Why leaves turn — and how fast the front falls

Autumn colour is a temperature story. Leaves start turning when overnight lows dip below about 8°C, and the change accelerates once nights hit 5°C. The most vivid years combine three things: crisp cold nights, big day-night temperature swings, and plenty of clear daytime sun. A warm, cloudy autumn mutes the reds; a typhoon at the wrong moment strips slopes bare overnight.

That temperature logic is also why the front moves the way it does. Air cools roughly 0.6°C for every 100 m of elevation, so colour ignites on the high slopes first and walks downhill — at about 2–3 days per 100 m of descent, by the Nagano Local Meteorological Office’s rule of thumb. A mountain with 1,000 m of relief can carry three to four weeks of continuous colour on a single slope. That’s the entire strategy of this board: when your dates are fixed, you don’t chase the calendar, you chase the altitude.

The six bases I’d actually book

The board tracks eleven regions, but an autumn trip needs two or three bases at most. These six are the ones I would actually book, north to south — they are not the whole board.

Daisetsuzan — where Japan’s autumn starts

Typical window: Sep 10 – Oct 10 · Best for: alpine colour while Tokyo is still in summer

The ropeway from Sounkyo or Asahidake puts you above the first turning slopes in Japan. September here means jackets and thermoses — and some of Japan’s earliest alpine colour before the main autumn crowds arrive. My full timing breakdown: Daisetsuzan in September.

Kamikochi — the Alps’ golden valley

Typical window: Oct 1 – Nov 5 · Best for: larch gold, riverside walks, no car needed

Karasawa’s high cirque burns first (late September), then the colour walks down to the Azusa River valley through October. The bus-only access keeps mornings quiet. Six more highland picks in October autumn gems. Rooms: Kamikochi & Matsumoto stays.

Nikko — the classic, timed right

Typical window: Oct 10 – Nov 10 · Best for: Irohazaka switchbacks, lake-and-waterfall circuits

Chuzenji sits roughly 600–700 m above Nikko town, which means two peaks two weeks apart — lake first, town later. Weekday mornings beat the famous Irohazaka traffic. The quieter valleys next door hold colour even later: Tochigi’s waterfall valleys.

Fuji Five Lakes — autumn on my home turf

Typical window: Oct 25 – Nov 25 · Best for: maple tunnels with Mt. Fuji in the background

The Momiji Corridor on Kawaguchiko’s north shore typically peaks in the first half of November — and the 2026 festival dates are already official (see below). I update the board’s Fuji row from the ground. Where to base: Kawaguchiko vs Fujiyoshida.

Kyoto — the late-November classic

Typical window: Nov 10 – Dec 7 · Best for: temple gardens, evening light-ups

Arashiyama and Tofukuji at peak are worth the crowds, and if you land early, Kurama, Kibune and the Hiei ridge turn before the basin does. Book the room before the restaurant list — my booking-order logic is in the Japan booking timeline.

Tokyo — the December safety net

Typical window: Nov 15 – Dec 10 · Best for: late trips, garden colour without leaving the city

Rikugien and Shinjuku Gyoen hold their maples into early December, among the last colour anywhere in Japan. If your trip lands late, Tokyo is the safest late-season base. Lock your window with the Booking Dates tool.

Official 2026 dates so far

Only officially announced dates or clearly labelled previous-season references appear here — never guesses.

Planning around the typical windows

Hotel pressure follows the colour front: Nikko and Kyoto are the two pinch points, and Kyoto’s mid-to-late November weekends are the hardest rooms of the season. If your dates land in those windows, compare Booking.com, Agoda or Trip.com early and choose a refundable rate — one room, with the cancellation deadline saved to your calendar.

Want this as a personal checklist? Pick your travel month on the Booking Dates page – it saves on your device and shows the one reversible step for your month.

FAQ

Aichi’s late entry: the Aigi Tunnels open for nine days from 28 November 2026 — four brick tunnels on the abandoned 1900 Chuo Line, 33 minutes from Nagoya, normally off-limits outside the brief spring and autumn openings.

Kyushu runs among the latest. My guide to Yujaku Park and Raizan Sennyoji covers two Oita and Fukuoka sites with almost no English coverage — including the illumination nights that do not run every evening.

If you want the headline names, the three most often grouped as Japan’s great autumn foliage sites have forecast peaks spread across about three and a half weeks this year: Nikko’s Irohazaka from about 31 October, Yabakei’s Hitome-Hakkei from about 15 November and Arashiyama from about 24 November. Those are Weathernews’ 3 September forecast dates. The spacing is the useful part — it is what puts all three inside one autumn, if the forecast holds.

Gunma’s oddity is Hotokuji in Kiryu, where the maples are reflected in the temple’s polished floor rather than looked up at. English coverage is thin and not always reliable — when I checked in September 2026, the one page Japan’s national tourism board has on the temple gave Kumamoto in its text and Gunma in the address block on the same page.

Closer to Tokyo, Nagatoro’s Tsuki-no-Ishi Momiji Park and Torii Kannon in Saitama are both awkward to time. At Nagatoro the illumination runs to 21:00, and the last departure that still connects you back toward Tokyo leaves earlier than the last train out of the station — which is the one most people plan around.

Sources

Typical windows compiled August 2026 from tenki.jp koyo pages (Japan Weather Association), Weathernews koyo spot data, Nikko City Tourism Association, Kenrokuen official, Karasawa Hutte and Fujisan.ne.jp. Colour-trigger temperatures (8°C onset, 5°C acceleration) per tenki.jp and Weathernews; elevation descent rate (2–3 days per 100 m) per the Nagano Local Meteorological Office; 2025 forecast release dates from Weathernews and JWA announcements; Fuji Kawaguchiko Momiji Festival 2026 dates (Nov 7–29) from the Fujikawaguchiko tourism office, published July 2026. 2026 regional forecast, leaf-condition call and early-September rain warning from Weathernews, published 3 September 2026; JWA release status per tenki.jp, checked 7 September 2026. Prefecture explorer: 144 spot windows are each spot’s rei-nen no migoro from tenki.jp (Japan Weather Association) spot pages, all checked 4 September 2026; spot selection and descriptions are my own. Spot-level 2026 forecasts will be added as published.