For travelers planning a spring trip to Japan, the wait is over. The first official 2026 cherry blossom forecast has been released by WeatherNews, providing the earliest glimpse of when to expect Japan’s iconic sakura to arrive. This guide is for anyone currently planning their 2026 Japan itinerary, helping you align your dates with the best possible viewing times.
According to the initial forecast, the first blossoms of the season are expected to open in Tokyo on March 21, 2026. While much of western and eastern Japan will see a season that aligns with an average year, northern Japan is predicted to have an earlier-than-usual bloom due to warmer spring temperatures .
Contents
- 2026 Cherry Blossom Forecast: Key Dates
- National Forecast Overview
- Regional Breakdown: When to Expect Blooms
- Where to See the First Sakura in Tokyo
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Sources
2026 Cherry Blossom Forecast: Key Dates
This table highlights the predicted first bloom dates for major cities across Japan. Full bloom is typically expected 5 to 14 days after the first blossoms open.
| City | Prefecture | Est. First Bloom | Typical Season |
| Tokyo | Tokyo | March 21 | Average |
| Fukuoka | Fukuoka | March 23 | Average |
| Nagoya | Aichi | March 23 | Average |
| Osaka | Osaka | March 27 | Average |
| Kyoto | Kyoto | March 28 | Average |
| Hiroshima | Hiroshima | March 26 | Average |
| Aomori | Aomori | April 15 | Earlier than Avg. |
| Sapporo | Hokkaido | April 23 | Much Earlier than Avg. |
Source: WeatherNews, January 8, 2026 Forecast
National Forecast Overview
The 2026 cherry blossom season is shaping up to be a tale of two patterns. For the popular tourist corridor from Kyushu (Fukuoka) to Kanto (Tokyo), the bloom is expected to arrive around the same time as an average year. This is similar to the 2025 season.
In contrast, Northern Japan (Tohoku and Hokkaido) is forecast to see an early arrival. This is attributed to predicted higher-than-average temperatures in April. For travelers looking to see the blossoms in these regions, you may need to adjust your schedule forward.
Regional Breakdown: When to Expect Blooms
•Kyushu, Shikoku, Chugoku: Most cities in these western regions will see blossoms open in the last week of March, which is typical. Fukuoka and Kumamoto are expected to start around March 23.
•Kansai & Tokai: The season will move into the Kansai region shortly after, with Osaka forecast for March 27 and Kyoto for March 28. Nagoya is predicted to be slightly earlier, on March 23.
•Kanto & Koshin: Tokyo will lead the nation with a March 21 start, followed closely by Yokohama on March 22. The Koshin region, including cities like Kofu, will also see blooms around this time.
•Tohoku & Hokkaido: The sakura front will reach the Tohoku region in early to mid-April, with famous spots like Hirosaki Park in Aomori expected to bloom around April 15. The front will then cross into Hokkaido, with Hakodate’s forecast on April 23—more than a week earlier than usual.
Planning Your Trip Around the Blossoms
With this first forecast now available, the window for planning is open. Here are a few tips:
•Book Accommodations Now: Popular hotels in prime locations like Tokyo, Kyoto, and Osaka get booked out months in advance for the sakura season. With specific dates now forecast, booking activity will surge.
•Be Flexible: This is the first of several forecasts. Dates can shift by a few days as new weather data becomes available. Build a day or two of buffer into your itinerary if possible.
•Consider Northern Japan: If your schedule is in late April or early May, Tohoku and Hokkaido offer a fantastic and less crowded alternative to the main tourist route.
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Find Hotels for Japan’s 2026 Sakura Season
Where to See the First Sakura in Tokyo
As the first city to bloom, Tokyo will be the center of attention. Some of the best and most famous spots to witness the season’s start include:
•Ueno Park: Home to over 1,000 cherry trees, this is one of Tokyo’s most popular and crowded spots for hanami (flower viewing parties).
•Shinjuku Gyoen: This spacious park offers a variety of cherry tree types and a more relaxed atmosphere, with a small entrance fee.
•Chidorigafuchi: The moat of the former Edo Castle is a breathtaking sight, with hundreds of trees lining the water. Renting a boat here is a classic Tokyo experience.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: How accurate is this first forecast?
A1: The first forecast is based on long-term weather models and historical data. While generally reliable for planning, the dates can change in subsequent forecasts released closer to the season. WeatherNews will release its next forecast in late January.
Q2: What is the difference between “first bloom” and “full bloom”?
A2: “First bloom” (kaika) is the day a few blossoms have opened on a sample tree. “Full bloom” (mankai) is when about 80% of the blossoms are open, which is typically the best time for viewing. This usually occurs about a week after the first bloom.
Q3: If I miss the peak in one city, can I still see them?
A3: Yes, absolutely. The cherry blossom front moves from south to north over several weeks. If you miss the peak in Tokyo, you can travel north to the Tohoku region or Hokkaido to catch their later bloom.
Sources
[1] 2026 First Cherry Blossom Forecast – WeatherNews
Last updated: January 10, 2026. Sources checked.
